Naturalgas On MCX Settled Down -1.34% At 198.50


Naturalgas on MCX settled down -1.34% at 198.50 edged lower for the third straight session on Monday, as traders monitored shifting weather forecasts to assess the outlook for early-spring demand and supply levels. Weather systems will impact the Southeast and Northern parts of the U.S. during the next few days, according to forecasters at NatGasWeather.com, with showers and cooling combining to drive slightly stronger than normal demand. As the week progresses, warm high pressure will build over the East with highs of 70s to upper 80s, locally 90sdriving modest early season demand for cooling. Next weekend will remain warm/hot over the southern and eastern US and cool over the west-central US. Overall, nat gas demand will be MODERATE. Meanwhile the latest Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC was released last Friday, with data as of the April 18th close.

Large speculators reduced long positions by 7,430 contracts and also reduced short positions by 13,922 contracts. This shifted the net positioning to the long side. This represented the third consecutive week that short positioning by large speculators declined. Current net positioning is just shy of 3,000 contracts on the long side. Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to weekly storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a build in a range between 65 and 75bcf in the week ended April 21.

That compares with a gain of 54bcf in the preceding week, an increase of 73 billion a year earlier and a five-year average rise of 57bcf. Technically market is getting support at 195.4 and below same could see a test of 192.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 201.9, a move above could see prices testing 205.2. 
 
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Suhani Verma

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