Natural Gas On MCX Settled Up 1.51%

Naturalgas on MCX settled up 1.51% at 207.80 edged higher on Thursday, despite data showing that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose more than expected last week. Yesterday the US EIA said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 68bcf in the week ended May 12, above forecasts for a build of 61 billion. That compared with a gain of 45bcf in the preceding week, an increase of 73 billion a year earlier and a five-year average rise of 87bcf.

Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.369tcf, according to the US EIA, 13.6% lower than levels at this time a year ago but 10.8% above the five-year average for this time of year. Meanwhile, the latest U.S. weather model called for mild temperatures over the next two weeks, which should reduce demand during that time. Meanwhile the southern, and eastern US will remain very warm highs of 80s to lower 90s, including major East Coast cities.

A strong weather system with valley rain and mountain snows will track through the west-central US today with cooling then expected to push into the central US late in the week through the weekend, including Texas. Cooler than normal conditions will reach the eastern US next week. Overall, nat gas demand will continue to run slightly stronger than normal.

Overall, the total supply/demand balance should be positive and is estimated to reach almost 120 bcf this week. In absolute terms, this kind of volume is bullish for natural gas prices. Now technically market is getting support at 205 and below same could see a test of 202.2 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 210.9, a move above could see prices testing 214.

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Suhani Verma

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