Naturalgas On MCX Settled Down -0.1%

Naturalgas on MCX settled down -0.1% at 196.40 dropped from the day's high along with crude prices and the inability of natural gas to sustain the move above 199 level keeps the broader bias for the commodity firmly to the downside heading into Thursday’s release of the natural gas inventories report. The weakness earlier in the week was fueled by the latest U.S. weather model which called for mild temperatures over the next two weeks.

Temperatures may fall into a range that is not cold enough for increased heating demand and not hot enough for increased air-conditioner usage. A weather systems with cooler than normal temperatures will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast for a couple more days. A second system over the South and Southeast will bring heavy showers and thunderstorms, but still with highs in the 80s. The West will be warm to hot, then cooling Fri-Tue as Pacific systems arrive.

After the NE cool shot exits Fri, warm to hot conditions will gain ground east of the Rockies through next week with widespread 80s and 90s. Overall, nat gas demand will be low increasing to moderate this weekend. Now market participants looked ahead to weekly storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a build in a range between 88 and 98bcf in the week ended June 2.

Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.525tcf, according to the US EIA, 12.8% lower than levels at this time a year ago but 8.9% above the five-year average for this time of year. Technically market is getting support at 194.9 and below same could see a test of 193.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 198.7, a move above could see prices testing 201.

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Suhani Verma

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